A United Ireland Plebiscite Must Not Become 'A Repeat of Brexit', Analysts Warn

A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Debates range over identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster must engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."