The Failure of the 28-Clause Peace Proposal for Ukraine: How Peace Negotiations Continue to Stumble

Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.

Failed Diplomacy

The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.